This is great data! How long does it typically take to construct an EV manufacturing site? Despite announcing in 2021, Rivian has yet to break ground on its potential site in Georgia. I think I saw them revise their timeline to 2026, so that'd be 5 years from the announcement.
If I recall various studies correctly, even once EVs make up majority of sales, it'll take 15-20 years to make a significant transition from internal combustion vehicles since vehicles on the road today last more than a decade on average. Do you think government will incentivize buy-backs of gas vehicles, or perhaps a carbon tax will be levied on gas purchases?
We are tracking the time between these projects are announced and when they actually go into production. The short answer is that it depends. EV factories can be brought into production in as little as 1-2 years (Tesla retooled an old factory in Fremont to manufacturers its EVs in 2 years;
Tesla built its brand-new Shanghai factory in 1 year - part of the China story). Most US factories currently manufacturing EVs were existing facilities retooled for EV production. Rivian's planned Georgia factory is a greenfield project facing local opposition, which is part of the reason it has moved slowly.
There is a precedent for buying back inefficient vehicles - those kinds of policies were put in place during George W. Bush and the Obama administration. It seems plausible such a strategy might be pursued again in the future to accelerate the phase out of ICE vehicles. In my view, the political headwinds facing a carbon tax make it less plausible in the near term.
This is great data! How long does it typically take to construct an EV manufacturing site? Despite announcing in 2021, Rivian has yet to break ground on its potential site in Georgia. I think I saw them revise their timeline to 2026, so that'd be 5 years from the announcement.
If I recall various studies correctly, even once EVs make up majority of sales, it'll take 15-20 years to make a significant transition from internal combustion vehicles since vehicles on the road today last more than a decade on average. Do you think government will incentivize buy-backs of gas vehicles, or perhaps a carbon tax will be levied on gas purchases?
Thanks for the good questions, Samuel.
We are tracking the time between these projects are announced and when they actually go into production. The short answer is that it depends. EV factories can be brought into production in as little as 1-2 years (Tesla retooled an old factory in Fremont to manufacturers its EVs in 2 years;
Tesla built its brand-new Shanghai factory in 1 year - part of the China story). Most US factories currently manufacturing EVs were existing facilities retooled for EV production. Rivian's planned Georgia factory is a greenfield project facing local opposition, which is part of the reason it has moved slowly.
There is a precedent for buying back inefficient vehicles - those kinds of policies were put in place during George W. Bush and the Obama administration. It seems plausible such a strategy might be pursued again in the future to accelerate the phase out of ICE vehicles. In my view, the political headwinds facing a carbon tax make it less plausible in the near term.
Thanks for taking the time to respond!